卖Gucci的人在“哭泣”

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 苏澜已经有两个月没怎么出门了，她定居在荷兰多年，从2013年开始做代购，还注册了贸易公司。今年，她发回国内的最后一单奢侈品还是在1月中旬，到今天已经停单两个多月了。<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>不止是苏澜，整个欧洲奢侈品代购圈子基本都停摆了。最初因为国内疫情，现在则是全球疫情大爆发，欧洲奢侈品从生产到销售被迫踩下急刹车。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>奢侈品行业原本正处于甜蜜增长期：2017年和2018年连续强劲增长，其中2018年全球个人奢侈品销售额增长6%，达到2600亿欧元；2019年数据依旧鲜亮，达到2810亿欧元。贝恩公司此前曾预计，全球奢侈品实体门店数量将于2020年达到最高点。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>疫情瞬间打乱了行业步伐。投资公司伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）在3月18日发给客户的备忘录中直言不讳地指出，2020年上半年“可能将成为现代奢侈品行业历史上最糟糕的时期”。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>4月1日，波士顿咨询集团（BCG）发布报告，预测2020年全球时尚和奢侈品销售额将同比下降25%-35%，销售额相较2019年同期将下降4,500亿美元到6,000亿美元，下降幅度超过了十年前的经济衰退。

<h2 style="margin: 30px 0px 14px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20px; line-height: 28px; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; position: relative; color: rgb(66, 133, 244); text-align: justify;”>米兰全城关店，代购无货可买

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>李蕊住在受疫情影响更严重的意大利米兰，米兰是举世闻名的奢侈品之都，她做奢侈品代购有四五年了。现在她和家人一起宅在米兰的家里。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>“商场关门，生意很少。”李蕊至今保持着每天发十几条朋友圈的节奏，没有因疫情间断。除了奢侈品，她也开始尝试一些亲民的商品，但几乎无人问津。 

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”><img alt="卖Gucci的人在“哭泣”" src="D:pic/2025-11-01/https://cdn.chuangxiangniao.com/she/2025/11/20251101013325-78.png" data-img-size-val="705,1357" style="margin: 30px auto; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 690px; display: block; border-radius: 5px;” />

<p class="img-desc" style="margin: -2px auto 15px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 20px; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); text-align: center; max-width: 690px; text-indent: 0px;”>李蕊近期的朋友圈，仍在努力卖货

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>去年12月，中国疫情爆发之前，米兰的氛围是轻松的。本地人天天出来逛街泡吧，购物中心人流涌动，李蕊积极张罗着代购生意，酒卖得特别好。一些米兰奢侈品店的柜姐，都知道中国春节前有一波生意，整个米兰的奢侈品业是抓紧赚钱的气氛。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>此后的春节传统上就是代购的淡季，因为中国客人通常提前买好了年货，春节期间忙着聚会享乐。因此对于国内传来的疫情资讯，生意的清淡，李蕊都没太在意。突然让她感到警觉的是，春节之后，米兰一些奢侈品店的柜姐开始戴口罩了。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>形势急转直下，一天比一天严峻，李蕊慌忙把替两个中国客人代购的一个巴黎世家包，一件Moncler羽绒服送到物流公司。发出去没几天，意大利就因为疫情严重，宣布“封国”。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>李蕊的代购生意在2015到2017年是最为火爆的。当时她刚起步，客人数量其实还不到1000。她每天从早到晚都会接到各种微信咨询，国内客人对奢侈品热情高涨，米兰的价格也非常诱人。中国客人最爱买的就是LV和Gucci，后来又多了一个巴黎世家。她记得自己隔三差五就要发一双巴黎世家的爆款鞋，一个月的订单总量常常有一百多单。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>米兰的代购圈子已经非常成熟，有一些买手长期浸泡在各大奢侈品店铺、打折村，她们选货、拍照，提供给代购发朋友圈，李蕊很多时候直接跟买手拿货就可以了。她会把商品从米兰快递到香港和澳门，那里的水客会带进内地，寄给客人。这一套流程已经非常成熟，几乎没有出过岔子。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>但疫情让整个链条都出了问题。米兰全城关店，打折村宣布4月3日之前不开门。买手们无货可买，集体傻眼，只能宅在米兰各个角落，李蕊自然也拿不到货。物流目前还没断，联邦快递和DHL仍然在收件，但速度慢了很多，周期变得非常长。即使发到了香港和澳门，水客入关之后，按规定都要被隔离14天。哪个客人愿意等将近一个月，收到一个隔离点出来的包包呢？

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>李蕊说，米兰奢侈品店大规模关闭之前一两周，代购圈子里的很多人已经感觉到情况不对了。以往商品紧俏时候，LV、Gucci的柜姐对买手爱搭不理；疫情期间她们态度突然转变，个个和颜悦色，只是没几天，所有人都失去了生意，每个人都被疫情关在了家里。

<h2 style="margin: 30px 0px 14px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20px; line-height: 28px; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; position: relative; color: rgb(66, 133, 244); text-align: justify;”>买手与中国消费者，推动奢侈品繁荣

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”><img alt="卖Gucci的人在“哭泣”" src="D:pic/2025-11-01/https://cdn.chuangxiangniao.com/she/2025/11/20251101093326-55.png" style="margin: 30px auto; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 690px; display: block; border-radius: 5px;” />

<p class="img-desc" style="margin: -2px auto 15px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 20px; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); text-align: center; max-width: 690px; text-indent: 0px;”>2019年圣诞节前的巴黎老佛爷百货

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>中国消费者一直是奢侈品行业的福星。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>在巴黎奥斯曼大道上的老佛爷百货公司（Galeries Lafayette），想找到会说中文的店员一点都不难。距离百货公司几百米外的路口，是旅游团大巴车习惯的停靠点，那附近的药妆店、咖啡馆生意都很好。太多游客在这里开始马拉松式购物血拼了，包括专业的买手代购。停靠点附近的垃圾桶也常会满满当当的，因为被塞进了太多的产品包装。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>但现在这里和米兰一样，也已经是另一番景象。法国政府宣布自3月15日起在全国关闭包括餐馆、商业中心等“非必需”公共场所，要求民众最大限度减少出行。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>苏澜讲述了早前在这里给中国客户抢购奢侈品的规则：大代购商和导游结盟，游客、留学生、来探亲访友的同胞，都可以成为代购链条上的一环，或排队代买、或拍照视频、或人肉把商品带回国内等。在法国普通游客退税是10.8%，扣除手续费、汇率差因素，可以拿到商品价格9%左右的退税金。但当天消费满2万欧元的大买家，可以申请21%的退税；再加上部分品牌会有返点，这就是为何大代购买家能赚到钱的秘籍。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>在巴黎太多华人都在从事相关工作，奢侈品基本都不喜欢代购，但渴望业绩的柜姐、柜哥会多少通融一下，或者睁一只眼闭一只眼。一些在国内被炒为爆款的商品，初次来巴黎的游客很难拿到，但熟客买手反而能凭借熟悉规则和话术买到。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>于是，从台面之上到台面之下，各种形态的渠道一起成就了过去数年奢侈品业的繁荣。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>2020年1月，贝恩公司与意大利奢侈品行业组织Altagamma联合发布《2019年全球奢侈品行业研究报告（秋季版）》显示，2019年全球个人奢侈品市场增长4%，达到2810亿欧元。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>贝恩公司的分析指出，从全球看，中国籍消费者对全球个人奢侈品市场持续性增长的贡献率达到90%，占全球个人奢侈品消费总额的35%。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>未来市场原本也被认为是光明的。因为随着中等收入阶层规模的不断壮大，尤其在亚洲，到2025年全球奢侈品消费客户群预计将从2019年的3.9亿增至4.5亿。

<h2 style="margin: 30px 0px 14px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20px; line-height: 28px; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; position: relative; color: rgb(66, 133, 244); text-align: justify;”>阿玛尼、Gucci接连关厂，多米诺骨牌席卷行业

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”><img alt="卖Gucci的人在“哭泣”" src="D:pic/2025-11-01/https://cdn.chuangxiangniao.com/she/2025/11/20251101093329-10.png" style="margin: 30px auto; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 690px; display: block; border-radius: 5px;” />

<p class="img-desc" style="margin: -2px auto 15px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 20px; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); text-align: center; max-width: 690px; text-indent: 0px;”>2019年3月，意大利罗马，爱马仕工艺展

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>大好形势在今年初迅速逆转了。其中，意大利糟糕的大环境最让时尚界担忧。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>这里拥有普拉达Prada、阿玛尼Armani和盟可睐Moncler等多个时尚品牌，其奢侈品销售仅次于法国，在欧洲排行第二。时尚之都米兰在意大利伦巴第大区，这里是与中国贸易量最大的地区，也是意大利最具文化活力的城市，但现在深陷疫情中。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>意大利的时尚与纺织行业规模高达970亿欧元，有六七十万人从事相关工作，生产的产品2/3会出口到全球。2月的第一个坏消息，是以往规模差不多有一千多人的中国时装编辑、买手缺席了米兰时装周。那一周米兰的疫情形势也急转直下，最后几场被紧急改成了线上云看秀。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>随后，意大利总理Giuseppe Conte宣布，3月12日之后，关闭境内工厂和所有非绝对必需品的生产，以应对他所说的“意大利自二战以来最严重的危机”。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>Carlo Capasa是意大利国家时装商会CNMI主席，3月24日，他在对话《VOGUE》时表达了对当下的担心：“现在牛排比裙子更重要。工厂本应将春季新品交付给门店，但它们现在只能滞留在仓库中。在日本、韩国、中国，对时尚商品的需求正在复苏，失去如此重要的商机将是巨大损失。我担心小公司受到严重伤害，无法跟上发展步伐了。我们的供应链微妙而复杂，如果破坏了这个平衡，对全球时尚体系都会造成重大影响。”

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>阿玛尼Armani是最早采取措施的公司之一。它2月的时装秀改为了线上举办，并关闭了其米兰总部和北部的工厂，这些工厂多位于遭受疫情重创的伦巴第和威尼托地区；3月10日，阿玛尼关闭了所有在意大利的门店和餐厅。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>Gucci是近年受中国消费者喜欢的品牌之一，它关闭了在意大利的6家工厂。Gucci隶属于奢侈品巨头开云Kering集团，同集团旗下还有圣罗兰Saint Laurent、葆蝶家Bottega Veneta、巴黎世家Balenciaga、布里奥尼 Brioni、宝诗龙 Boucheron等品牌。开云集团总部在法国，但有相当数量的品牌和生产基地在意大利。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>随后，从欧洲到美国，各种被取消的时尚活动、盛典如多米诺骨牌一般。“整个春日派对季消失了”，这意味着奢侈品全行业第一季度的营销推广基本告吹。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>遭遇雪崩的，还有奢侈品行业重要的组成部分之一——旅游零售，多国禁航，航班取消，客流降至冰点，机场免税店遭受灭顶之灾。罗兰贝格管理咨询公司分析称，全球免税店全年的营业额可能蒸发近1/4，平时在机场免税店热销的美妆和奢侈品首当其冲。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>眼下巴黎许多百货商场更是如坐针毡。因为采取的是“买手制”，百货提前数月从品牌采购商品，如今巴黎百货商场货架上琳琅满目的奢侈商品，意味着百货先行支付的大额资金。随着封城越来越严格，客流断崖，百货即将面对的是库存、打折也未必卖得出去的境地。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>据法国当地的业内人士告诉《棱镜》，一些巴黎的百货公司正在和品牌协商，能否在下一季订货时给予折扣，寻求和奢侈品牌抱团取暖、共渡难关。

<h2 style="margin: 30px 0px 14px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20px; line-height: 28px; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; position: relative; color: rgb(66, 133, 244); text-align: justify;”>当LV生产洗手液，奢侈品业迎“最糟糕时期”

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>然而，奢侈品牌们正自身难保。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>英国博柏利（Burberry）就宣布，1月24日之后的6周里，他们营业至少一年的成熟门店销售额下降了40％-50％，而目前全球约40％的商店已经关闭，并且还将关闭更多商店。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>2020年3月20日，开云集团发布了对疫情影响最新的评估：截至3月31日的第一季度，其合并收入与2019年同期相比，预计下降了13％至14％（按可比价格计算下降了约15％）。开云集团预计，因为疫情影响了客户群和旅游业，其第二季度收入依旧会受到影响。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>香奈儿、爱马仕也相继宣告停产；劳力士和百达翡丽也关停了机器设备。全球第一大奢侈品集团LVMH在72小时内，将迪奥、纪梵希和娇兰的香水生产线改组，转而生产洗手液，巴黎世家和Prada开始生产口罩和防护服。这意味着他们不仅不能赚钱，还要为欧洲抗疫不断付出成本。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”><img alt="卖Gucci的人在“哭泣”" src="D:pic/2025-11-01/https://cdn.chuangxiangniao.com/she/2025/11/20251101093330-53.png" data-img-size-val="690,518" style="margin: 30px auto; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 690px; display: block; border-radius: 5px;” />

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”><img alt="卖Gucci的人在“哭泣”" src="D:pic/2025-11-01/https://cdn.chuangxiangniao.com/she/2025/11/20251101093331-46.png" data-img-size-val="565,390" style="margin: 30px auto; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 690px; display: block; border-radius: 5px;” />

<p class="img-desc" style="margin: -2px auto 15px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 20px; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); text-align: center; max-width: 690px; text-indent: 0px;”>迪奥正在生产口罩。来源：迪奥官方微博

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>2020年3月27日，LVMH在一份声明中提及了疫情对业绩带来的影响，预计第一季度合并收入较去年同期下降10%-20%，而至于未来更具体的影响，在多个国家生产和销售没有恢复正常期限之时，还难以估计。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>令人唏嘘的是，整个奢侈品行业只有私人飞机租赁业务量激增。疫情最初，一些美国客人包机从意大利离开。一些富有家庭和公司选择乘坐私人飞机，避免在机舱中和陌生人接触。如今很多公司高管、医疗队、律师行也租私人飞机，艰难处理其他地区的业务。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>《罗博报告》3月9日一篇文章里写道，美国Paramount公务飞机公司CEO说：“我们通宵加班，需求量比平时增加了100％-300%，国内需求也在暴涨，从纽约地区撤离的需求增加了110%。”然而，私人飞机公司也笑不出来，眼下航线、护照、签证等等问题错综复杂，他们面对的是一团乱麻。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>投资公司伯恩斯坦Bernstein在3月18日发给客户的备忘录中直言不讳地指出，2020年上半年“可能将成为现代奢侈品行业历史上最糟糕的时期”。奢侈品行业经历过的重大危机，包括世界大战和1918年西班牙流感。但是和以前不一样，奢侈品不仅依赖于向富人的销售，更重要的是依赖于新兴的中等收入阶层的销售，他们的经济状况受到了影响。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>据BCG分析师们估算，时尚和奢侈品整体销售额将在3月和4月触底，降幅少则可能达到2019年销售额的65%，高则达到80%左右。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>欧洲的情绪是焦虑的，李蕊总的来说比较积极。她对国内的变化非常关注，在米兰的家里尝试直播，还在摸索小程序的玩法。李蕊说，国内的客人现在还没有什么心情购物，“直播太多，国内客人都不够用了”。